When Will We know Who Wins the Presidential Election?

Ah yes, the Presidential Election. Election Day is November 3rd, two days from now. I know that my entire household is very stressed, and many of my friends are nervous as well.

Last Election Day, my dad found out the news at work because he was working an overnight shift and the race was called rather late at night. This year, although all of us are planning on pulling an all-nighter, it is likely that the race won't be called on Election Day and most likely won't be called during our all-nighter as well. The amount of absentee (mail-in) ballots used have risen this year due to the coronavirus, which makes counting votes much more time consuming.

So when will we know?

Fivethirtyeight.com, aka my favorite website, aka a statistic's newspaper that analyzes election results, published an article on when they believe we will know the results of the election and which states to specifically watch. Nathaniel Rakich, the man who published the article, is much more well spoken than me (as he graduated from Harvard), so I think your best bet is to read more thoroughly what he thinks. I will be linking that article below.

However, if you want to know my short, sweet rundown of his information, here it is:

If we stick to the states that we know will be going to Biden and Trump, Biden will have 192 electoral votes and Trump will have 119 electoral votes. Neither one of these counts holds up to the perfect 270 electoral votes needed to call the election, so we will probably not know until all the mail in ballots are counted in swing states. Simply put, we probably won't know until Thursday or Friday. However, based on some states called earlier, we should have a pretty good indicator of who is likely to win, so keep that in mind. There is also a small chance that it is Trump or Biden's lucky night and one of them miraculously hits 270.

Even though fivethirtyeight has put Biden's chance of winning at 90 in 100 and Trump's at 10 in 100, please still vote. Polls are not always correct. Fivethirtyeight also predicted Hillary's chance of winning at 71 in 100 and we all saw how that turned out.

Please, please vote.

Source (please check it out for more information!): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

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