When Will We Have a Vaccine?
- fionacsweet
- Aug 10, 2020
- 2 min read
Donald Trump said last week that he was optimistic about a vaccine being ready in time for Election Day on November 3. He said this: "I believe we'll have the vaccine before the end of the year, certainly, but around that date, yes. I think so."
CNN got an email that Moderna sent on Friday to the principal investigators of its vaccine trials. It says that 4,536 people have already enrolled. The trial started the morning of July 30th and intends to enroll 30,000 subjects. The company has said it's "on track to complete enrollment in September."
Now, let's break down why we unfortunately will not have a vaccine on the market in time for Election Day, according to infectious disease experts. In other words, Dr. Paul Offit, a vacinologist at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said "I don't see how that would be possible."
After Moderna enrolls its subjects, they give them a first shot. The subjects then have to wait 28 days before getting a second shot. If Moderna expects full enrollment in September, that means that the last participants enrolled will not get their second shot until the end of October. The vaccine requires 2 weeks to become fully effective, which then "takes you past Election Day." (according to Offit) After that, researchers have to wait to see who gets sick with coronavirus and who doesn't. Half of the participants are receiving the real vaccine, and the other half are receiving a shot that does nothing. Neither the participants nor the doctors know who is getting what. Infectious disease experts predict results from the study in the first quarter of 2021 at the earliest, perhaps by Inauguration Day.
Now, I would love for Donald Trump to be correct about us getting a vaccine by Election Day, but unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. However, getting results by the end of January sounds very exciting, and hopefully very promising. I am optimistic! Have a good Monday!
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