What Happens If a Presidential Candidate Rejects Election Results?

The peaceful transfer of power has been a hallmark of American Democracy ever since its inception. Since the days of the Washington Administration, politicians have accepted defeat with grace and honor, never once challenging the will of the people. If a candidate were to ever challenge an election, it would be under the guise of a miscount. However in 2016, then Candidate Trump, was unclear on whether or not he would accept the results of the election if he lost. The claim caused several to question how the United States would function if a candidate rejected the results of the election. President Trump, however, won the 2016 election and all concerns were put to rest. Although, with the 2020 Presidential Election looming, concerns resurfaced as to if the candidates would gracefully concede the 2020 race. If either candidate decides to reject the results of the election, it may be the end of presidential elections as we know them.

The peaceful transition of power is one of the oldest tenants in the Constitution. Although it is not expressed in writing until 1933 (with the passage of the 20th amendment) several generations of presidents have peacefully transferred power over to the next president. However one may ask how the peaceful transfer of power was conducted before the passage of the 20th amendment. The answer lies with George Washington. Washington famously left the presidency after two terms; handing the job over to whoever won the next election. Ever since that date, presidents have only ever served a maximum of two terms (excluding FDR) and have always graciously left the White House after they have been beat or their term limit is up. The passage of the 20th amendment was not to prevent the issue being discussed today, but was passed to reduce the lame duck period in-between presidencies. The amendment states that on January 20th, the new president shall be sworn in and the executive branch shall be loyal to him. However, the question of loyalty was never considered until the 2016 election.

Let's now discuss how each candidate would challenge the election's validity. We will start with former Vice President Joe Biden. Although Biden has never expressed that he would reject the results if he lost, the election may be close enough such that Biden would feel the need to challenge its results. Biden would most likely begin the challenge by rallying his supporters to believe that the election is fraudulent. He would most likely utilize the narrative of voter suppression. With President Trump campaigning hard against mail-in ballots and several states closing their polling stations due to the Coronavirus. Biden would claim that states are attempting to suppress votes. The effect this claim would have on the American public is horrific; thousands of Americans would lose trust in the election system and several may even take to the streets to protest the result. It is unclear whether or not the protest will be peaceful or violent but either would leave an incurable scar on American politics. Biden would then move to a legal challenge of the election. The Biden campaign would most likely file lawsuits in several states claiming that those states suppressed votes in order to sway the election for President Trump. Several of these cases would likely make their way up to the Supreme Court which would delay the presidential process even further given the fact that the court took a month to decide the Bush V. Gore case. The result of such a wait being that we may not have a presidential candidate by the time that we reach inauguration day.

If President Trump were to reject the results of the election, the playbook would be different. The president has already stated his disdain for Mail-in ballots, claiming on several occasions that they can be easily falsified. Whatever the validity of that claim may be, President Trump would solidify the idea of a fraudulent election through the claim that the ballots themselves are untrustworthy. Socially, the response to this claim would be similar to the response to Biden's supposed rejection: Thousands of people would lose faith in American elections and several would protest, either peacefully or violently, in an attempt to keep the president in power. Legally however, the president would file lawsuits in several states claiming that they participated in voter suppression by utilizing mail-in ballots rather than actively closing polling stations like the theoretical Biden lawsuits. These cases, like the theoretical ones in Biden's scenario, would make their way up to the Supreme Court and the court may take a month or two to decide the outcome of the case. This scenario would delay the Federal Government from declaring a president-elect and may even delay the inauguration (similar to the example used in the previous paragraph.) These scenarios also ask many to consider what the Supreme Court's decision would be on such a high profile case. If precedent tells us anything, both cases (Trump and Biden's theoretical challenge) would most likely be decided along party lines. With Bush V. Gore in 2000, the conservative court voted strictly along party lines and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush. The court today still retains a conservative majority; however, several of the conservative judges have shown tendencies to flip towards the more liberal opinion. This means that the Supreme Court may rule against the declared winner (whichever party he may be) and spur an even worse constitutional crisis.

On January 20th some version of a president must be sworn in. However, what happens if a continuing legal battle prevents the government from declaring a clear winner? In this scenario, the Federal Government has several options to appoint an acting president. All of said options flow through Congress. Congress, according to the 12 amendment, must choose a Vice President (similar to how they would choose a vice president in an electoral tie) to become acting president. This person would then serve until the real president is declared and return to their vice presidential duties once the real president is sworn in. However, this scenario doesn't come without its issues. If Congress chooses a Vice President, they would be forced to choose between Mike Pence and whomever Biden chooses for his running mate. The choice between these two candidates may cause turmoil when the real president is inaugurated due to the fact that Congress may choose one party's candidate for vice president (say Mike Pence) but then the courts might decide that the other party (say Joe Biden) has won the election. This decision would cause even more turmoil as two opposing ideologies would reside in the White House. Either a Democratic President and Republican Vice President or a Republican President and Democratic Vice President. Congress however, may rule that this option isn't viable due to the fact that the vice president is too entangled in the legal battle occurring in the Supreme Court. If congress forgoes the first option they must then consult the Presidential Order of Succession. Congress would be forced to choose between the third and fourth in line to the presidency (the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the senate respectively) as acting president. The reason why Congress would be forced to choose between these two people is because the rest of the order are presidential appointees to the cabinet. (Secretary of State is 5, Secretary of the Treasury is 6 ect.) Since Biden hasn't appointed a cabinet and all of Trump's cabinet members would customarily resign at the end of his term, Congress would be stuck between the only members of the legislative branch in line for the presidency. However, even this option is flawed due to the fact that the American people would most likely view Congress as self serving by placing one of their own in the highest office in the land. As we can see, even an attempt to place an acting president in power could have horrific fallout.

Although drawing up nightmare scenarios about each candidate is interesting, what's even more interesting is how the Federal Government would deal with the candidate who is not declared the winner. If Biden refuses to accept the outcome of the election (and he is declared the loser,) he can do nothing other than file lawsuits. He can't stay in the White House (considering that he does not currently reside in it) and he can't occupy the White House due to the fact that the Secret Service and the military would stay loyal to President Trump. Furthermore, President Trump would have more than enough grounds to charge Biden, and any aides working with him, with insurrection and espionage. This move, although legal and most likely necessary considering the situation, would cause major uproar throughout the U.S.. It would be viewed as jailing your enemies. If President Trump were to reject the results; however, he would conduct himself very differently. Since he occupies the White House and has currently has control over the military and the Secret Service he may believe that he can remain in office. However, on inauguration day the Secret Service and the military become loyal to the declared winner. President Trump, if he loses, may attempt to remain in the White House and continue to govern; however, he no longer wields any power over the executive branch. This means that if he attempted to remain in the White House he would be forcibly removed by the Secret Service. Furthermore, the declared winner (most likely Biden) would likely charge Trump with insurrection and espionage. Just as we explained in the previous example, although legally and morally correct given the situation, the American public would view the move as an act of political revenge.

Each of these scenarios would cause significant damage the the American Republic. Not only would they cause a mistrust of the American system, but they would also damage pristine precedent. For 45 Presidential Elections the United States has ensured that the American people have an executive leader to guide the country, regardless of personal feelings over the election. The peaceful transfer of power is the lifeblood of American Government; it ensures that the United States remains a republic rather than a monarchy changing leaders one coup to another. My worst fear is not that any of these scenarios are carried out in 2020, but that future presidents disregard the will of the people based on the precedent that would be set by these scenarios. This would cause a continued downward spiral of our trust in the Federal Government. I implore either candidate, no matter how you may feel about the election results, to please accept them. Accept them not only for a smooth transition of power in a time we desperately need leadership , but so we are able to continue one of the most sacred parts of our democracy.

Citations: President-elect of the United States. (2020, July 11). Retrieved July 21, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President-elect_of_the_United_StatesCitations:

What Happens If Trump Refuses to Step Down If He Loses the 2020 Election? What If He Contests the Voting Results? (n.d.). Retrieved July 21, 2020, from https://www.countable.us/articles/35874-happens-trump-refuses-step-loses-2020-election-contests-voting-results

President-elect of the United States. (2020, July 11). Retrieved July 21, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President-elect_of_the_United_States

Twentieth Amendment to the United States Constitution. (2020, July 20). Retrieved July 21, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

Kaplan, F. (2020, June 01). Trump Can't Just Refuse to Leave Office. Retrieved July 21, 2020, from https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/trump-election-refusal-leave.html