Trouble In Kashmir; The Recent Clash Between India and China.

On Monday, June 15th, reports of violence flooded in from the disputed territory of Kashmir. Indian Military officials reported that, in an official skirmish with China, Chinese troops killed 3 Indian soldiers and wounded 17 more. Later that day, Indian officials reported that all of the 17 injured soldiers had died, bringing the official death toll to 20 Indian soldiers. The Chinese, on Wednesday, June 17th, released that up to 40 soldiers had died as a result of the skirmish. Since the initial battle, no other hostilities have been reported in the region. However, many in the international community have expressed grave concern over hostilities rising between two nuclear powers. For most Americans, this animosity seems unfounded. When most think of disputes in the region of Kashmir, they assume that they are between Indian and Pakistan, not India and China. To understand how this may evolve, we must begin to examine the history between Indian and China and the history of the region of Kashmir.

After the British Empire ceded control of India in 1947, they divided the region into the four land masses we know today The country of India, the country of Pakistan, the country of Bangladesh, and finally Kashmir which was divided up and given to border countries of India, China, and Pakistan. Shortly after the withdrawal of British occupation, tensions in the region began to rise due to sour relations and old rivalries. The first instance of violence was sparked between India and Pakistan. In 1947, Kashmir residents began to protest unfair taxation by the Indian ruler of the region and were violently subdued. The different territories of Kashmir then began to call for their leaders to accede to either India or Pakistan. Tensions and hostilities continued to mount until the U.N. intervened in 1948. They called a ceasefire between Pakistan and India as well as a plebiscite for the people of Kashmir to decide which country would govern them. However the plebiscite never occurred and tensions rose even further. Three wars erupted over the region between Pakistan and India in 1965, 1971, and 1999. A war between China and India also occurred in 1962 due to a border dispute in Kashmir. Ever since the most recent war in Kashmir, each country has beefed up infrastructure near the borders to transport troops and supplies with greater ease.

The conflict between India and China has been relatively quiet militarily ever since 1962. There have been a few hand to hand skirmishes between 1962 and 2020 (due to the fact the firearms are prohibited by a previous treaty in the region governed by China and India.) but little to no hostilities have occurred otherwise. The skirmish on Monday, however, broke that trend. Reports of the battle from both sides can be described as conflicting at best. The Indian military officials claim that Chinese soldiers crossed their side of the border. One official said "They hit our boys on the head with metal batons wrapped in barbed wire. Our boys fought with bare hands." The report by the Indian military claimed that 300 Chinese solider attacked 55 Indian solider and overpowered them. The Chinese report however, claimed that the Indians were building a new road near the border and they ambushed Chinese soldiers in an attempt to gain more land. On Tuesday evening, India said that troops disengaged from the site and that both military and diplomatic channels were being used to resolve the conflict.

As troops disengage from the original attack site we begin to wonder whether this conflict will lead to an even larger conflict involving the countries. A pragmatist will tell you that two countries which hold nuclear weapons and have a plausible pretext to war (the need to unite what they see as "their people" due to a common culture, heritage or religion as well as previous war in the region) will plunge the world into nuclear holocaust. However, this analysis is severely flawed. To see this, we must examine the historical reasons for war in 1962 and how it compares to today. One of the initial reasons for war in 1962 was dictated by the fact that both countries were relatively new. India was formed in 1947 and the People's Republic of China was formed in 1952 (date of the final year of the communist revolution.) As with almost all new countries, there is a tangible fear that they will be attacked by more established countries. A method to deter said attacks is to show that a country is not afraid engage in a conflict. Furthermore, both India and China took a page out of Imperial Europe's playbook to solidify their power: establishing imperial land holdings to display a country's power. With India having little to no land holdings other than Kashmir and China only holding Tibet, they both desperately wanted to display to the world that each was not a country to be trifled with. Compare that to the modern day situation, China and India have become major players on the world stage and are respected both diplomatically and militarily; they have no need to prove themselves as a nation nor attempt to deter other powers from attacking them. Additionally, Chinese-Indian relations in 1962 could best be described as underdeveloped. Now however, China is India's largest trading partner and balance of trade is favorable. If the countries went to war against each other it would mean jeopardizing a large swath of GDP growth. Finally, we come to the most important deterrent of all: nuclear weapons. The Chinese didn't create their first nuclear bomb until 1964 and the Indians didn't create their first bomb until 1974 (2 and 12 years after the 1962 war respectively.) Now compare that to today where both countries can be described as nuclear juggernauts with large armies and an extensive nuclear arsenal. Mutually Assured Destruction (or MAD) prevented the United States and the Former Soviet Union from utilizing nuclear weapons and entering into a full scale war, the same could be reasonably inferred about India and China in the current situation.

Although the path forward is unclear, it has been demonstrated by history that the skirmish will most likely not erupt into a full scale war. The history of India, Pakistan, China, and Kashmir is a long and extensive one with rivalries that date back thousands of years. The history provided in this article is brief and leaves out several key events correlated with what makes Kashmir one of the most dangerous places on earth. Only those parts important to understanding the general hostilities of the region and relations between India and China were included. However, it is important to understand the full history of Kashmir to more effectively approach peace in the region. Although tensions have consistently been high between the three countries, there is always an opportunity strengthen ties diplomatically. The countries entangled in Kashmir, as well as others in the international community, hope that not only will these skirmishes remain sporadic and small, but that they will serve as the bridge for a long awaited peace.

Citations:

Biswas, Soutik. “India-China Clash: An Extraordinary Escalation 'with Rocks and Clubs'.”BBC News, BBC, 16 June 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53071913

“Aksai Chin.”Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 17 June 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aksai_Chin.

“History of Kashmir.”Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 29 May 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Kashmir.

“Religion in Bangladesh.”Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 17 June 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Bangladesh.

Desk, India Today Web. “India-China War of 1962: How It Started and What Happened Later.”India Today, India Today Web Desk, 21 Nov. 2018, www.indiatoday.in/education-today/gk-current-affairs/story/india-china-war-of-1962-839077-2016-11-21.

Haltiwanger, John. “Hundreds of Chinese Troops Reportedly Hunted down Dozens of Indian Soldiers and Beat Them with Batons Wrapped in Barbed Wire.”Business Insider, Business Insider, 17 June 2020, www.businessinsider.com/chinese-troops-beat-indian-soldiers-batons-wrapped-in-barbed-wire-2020-6.

“India and Weapons of Mass Destruction.”Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 17 June 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction.

“Fact Sheet: China's Nuclear Arsenal.”Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 2 Apr. 2020, armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-chinas-nuclear-arsenal/.