How Kamala Harris Can Help and Hurt the Biden Campaign

In March of 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden promised that a woman would be his running mate for the upcoming election. On Tuesday, August 11th, Joe Biden announced that California Senator Kamala Harris would become his nominee for Vice President of the United States. The announcement is historic due to the fact that Harris is only the fourth woman to ever be nominated by a major party, the third woman to ever be nominated for Vice President by a major party, and the first woman of Black and South Asian heritage to be nominated for Vice President by a major party. Most democrats are ecstatic with the decision and some claim that, with Harris as his running mate, Biden has already won the election. However most Republicans believe that, with Harris' nomination, the election has been handed to President Donald Trump. The two differing viewpoints beg one question: Will Harris help or hurt the Biden Campaign?

To understand what effect Kamala Harris will have on the Biden Campaign, we have to first understand how, traditionally, the Vice President has helped a Presidential Candidate win an election. When a Vice Presidential Candidate is chosen, they are usually chosen for one or all of three criterion. The first piece of criteria being that the candidate hails from a certain state that is necessary for a campaign to win, the second being that a candidate delivers the majority of a certain voting bloc, and the third being that the candidate is relatively unknown on the national stage. Often times, a Vice Presidential Candidate will be chosen based on the state that they reside in. In most national elections, both the Presidential Candidate and the Vice Presidential candidate have won their home states. In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton won her home state of New York and her VP's (Tim Kaine) home state of Virginia. Furthermore, Donald Trump won his home state of Florida (as he lists his main residence as Mar-A-Lago) and his VP's (Mike Pence) home state of Indiana. A campaign is almost always guaranteed to win the home state of their candidate. Another reason a candidate is chosen is because they secure or deliver a specific bloc of voters. For example: If a Presidential Candidate isn't garnering the support they need with religious voters, they may choose a VP candidate with strong religious ties. Often, these moves can result in a marginal increase in support amongst a specific bloc of voters. However, it can also be seen as pandering by a desperate politician and the candidate can lose even more support in that specific bloc of voters. However, many campaigns still attempt to sure up uneasy voting blocs by choosing a VP that aligns with these bloc's views. The third reason a VP candidate is chosen is because they are relatively unknown on the national stage. Although it may seem counterintuitive, choosing a candidate that not many people know is somewhat logical. If a candidate fills either of the other two requirements listed above, and they are relatively unknown, they can often be a safe bet to raise voter turnout. Also, national campaigns often strive to ensure that people go out and vote for the Presidential Candidate and not just stay home and hope that a Vice Presidential candidate will carry their morals. This theory is called "strength of the ticket" and many campaign officials attempt to ensure that the top of the ticket (the Presidential Candidate) is stronger the the bottom of the ticket (the VP Candidate.) Furthermore, if a Vice Presidential Candidate is relatively unknown, there is often nothing that the opposing campaign can attack them with, therefore; a relatively unknown candidate does little to hinder a campaign.

Now, how does Kamala Harris fit into each of these criterion? The first reason a candidate is usually chosen for is their home state. Harris is a senator from California and was also the former Attorney General for California. However, I don't believe that the Biden Campaign chose Harris over others possible VP's because of her home state. Democrats ever since Reagan have had strong leads in California and Biden is no different. He has an almost 35 point lead by some estimates and almost all pollsters believe that President Trump cannot come close to winning California. Furthermore, Harris was also born in Oakland, California (birth state is sometimes different than a candidate's home state) solidifying even further the belief that the Biden Campaign did not choose Kamala Harris to deliver her home state as it has already been delivered.

However, did the Biden Campaign choose Kamala Harris to solidify a particular bloc of voters? Before we decide whether or not the Biden Campaign chose Harris based on this criterion, we first have to understand which blocs of voters Harris can bring to the table. Harris is, as we have described, a woman of Black and South Asian heritage. Furthermore, she is a former prosecutor, AG of California, and senator that sits on both the Senate Foreign Intelligence committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee. Considering these facts, as well as the legislation she has voted on and introduced into the Senate, I believe that Kamala Harris brings three main voting blocs to the table: Women, Minorities (specifically Black Americans,) and the Law and Order vote. However, let's focus first on the female vote.

The female vote has been a hallmark of the Democratic Party for years. Vice President Biden, according to polls, is winning the female vote by a historic margin as he holds almost 60% of all women's votes. Furthermore, Biden's pledge in March of this year to nominate a female Vice President gave him a massive boost from his already large support in the female community. I would argue that, Biden already held massive amounts of the female vote before Harris was nominated. Furthermore, her nomination (although loved by female voters) did little to sway more women towards him. However, there is one bloc of female voters that Harris may bring to the table, although; it won't be for the reasons you think.

Many regard white suburban female voters to be one of the major demographics that helped President Trump win the 2016 election. Ever since the election of 1996, the white suburban female or "soccer mom" has been described as one of the largest blocs of swing voters in the U.S. "Soccer Moms" are often described as women who put their children's needs above their own and support things like higher spending on education and stricter law and order practices. President Trump won this bloc of voters in 2016 by classifying himself as the "law and order" president and later reaffirmed that statement by sending federal troop to quell protests in Washington D.C. after the death of George Floyd. However, although Biden is not normally seen as the "Law and Order" candidate, Kamala Harris has a strong reputation for being tough on crime. This may mean that the Biden Campaign is attempting to take all of or a portion of the "soccer mom" vote. However, attempting to classify Harris as a "Law and Order" candidate may also hurt the Biden Campaign. During the primaries, when Harris was running against Biden. she boasted historically low support amongst Black and other Minority Americans. Many cited her work as a former prosecutor, as well as some of the questionable decisions she made as California AG, as reasons against supporting her candidacy. By classifying Harris as the "Law and Order" candidate, the Biden campaign may sacrifice voter turnout amongst minority Americans; which they desperately need in order to win the election.

However, there may be a way to achieve large turnout in both blocs of voters. While Harris was in the senate, she introduced several resolutions and bills that centered around Racial Justice and Criminal Justice Reform. Many of these bills and resolutions were in direct conflict of her actions and beliefs as California AG and several democratic pundits and political commentators saw her actions in the senate as a repentance for her policies as California AG. The Biden campaign may attempt to paint Harris as a "law and order" candidate who also cares about the rights and protections of minorities, therefore; turning voters in the "soccer mom" category towards Biden while simultaneously retaining the massive support Biden has amassed in several minority communities. Furthermore, Although Biden already had large support amongst both Black and other minority communities, Harris, being a woman of color, had a huge effect on support for Biden. Many in the Democratic Party begged Biden to choose a woman of color after the death George Floyd. In fact several registered Democrats claimed they would stay home on election day if Biden's choice was not a woman of color. Although Biden has unprecedented support in the Black and Brown communities, he needs to retain that support and ensure that those voters are excited to go out and pull the lever for him. Biden's choice of Harris for VP satisfies minority communities not only because Harris is a minority herself, but because she is an advocate and leader for minority communities and issues.

The final criterion for choosing a Vice Presidential Candidate is relatively low public knowledge of the candidate. This trend has described almost every VP candidate for the past 80 Years. For Example: FDR chose Harry Truman (a relatively unknown senator from Missouri,) Nixon chose Gerald Ford (only notable for being senate majority leader,) JFK chose LBJ (only notable for holding positions in all branches of government,) Bush chose Dick Cheney, (a relatively unknown representative from Wyoming,) and even Biden at the time of his nomination was a relatively unknown senator form Delaware. Most Presidential Candidates want to ensure that their Vice Presidential Candidates cannot outshine them. They hope these candidates only excite voters more than they already are to go out and pull the lever for one candidate or another. However, Biden seems to have broken the trend of choosing a relatively unknown VP Candidate. Harris is well know in the Democratic Party and to the American Public due to increased media coverage of her questioning of Brett Kavanaugh during his Supreme Court Nomination and for her candidacy during the 2020 election cycle. Many pundits believe that Harris outshines Biden in many ways. However, Biden calls himself a "transition candidate" and understands that, if elected, he would be the oldest president to ever be inaugurated. He has stated that he wants to ensure that, if something were to happen to him, a capable and strong leader would be able to take over. Furthermore, Biden has stated that he wanted to be the gateway to a new generation of leaders and believes that Kamala Harris can be the first leader born of that new generation. Additionally, the Biden Campaign believes that, as long as a voter is checking the box for a democrat, they don't care if they favor the bottom of the ticket or the top.

Although increased media coverage of Biden's Vice Presidential announcement may lead some to believe that his nomination is the deciding factor of the election, it is important to note that many believe the Vice Presidency is completely useless. In both the campaign and in office, many regard the job of Vice President as completely insignificant. The first Vice President, John Adams, said this about the office: “The vice presidency is the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.” However in any election, every decision, quote or idea a candidate makes or gives has the ability to sway the election in one direction or another. Harris gives Biden increased support amongst female voters and may even provide him with some "law and order" votes, however; the campaign must also navigate Harris' uncomfortable past with Criminal Justice to ensure that they do not begin hemorrhaging votes that they need to win the election. It is important to remember that all candidates come with good and bad qualities, however; the only ones who can truly discern who can ascends to the highest office in the land, is the voters.

Citations:

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Samuelsohn, D., White, J., Sitrin, S., & Gerstein, B. (n.d.). Who are the Soccer Moms of 2016? Retrieved August 16, 2020, from https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/2016-election-battleground-swing-states-soccer-moms-nascar-dads-demographics-trump-clinton-214047

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