Electoral Tie?

There is only 122 days (from July 3rd) until a presidential election is upon us. Barring something unforeseen, President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden will compete to become the President of the United States. Although pundits never fail to remind us of the gravity of each election, this one could truly be one of the most influential in American History. The next president will shape America's response to the Coronavirus, as well as create pivotal policy in an ever changing world. The election of 2020 will go down in the history books, however, it may not be for the reason you believe. The possibility of an electoral tie could be realized this election cycle. Although my analysis is purely opinion, the possible ramifications of an electoral tie are absolutely worth examination.

Before we examine how an electoral tie is possible, let's go over a few election phrases. The first phrase is: true blue or true red state. These phrases indicate which states are guaranteed to vote for one party (blue for democrats, red for republicans.) Often these states have voted for the same party in several previous elections and show no signs of a shift towards the other party. Another phrase that will be used often is: a lean state. A lean state is used to describe a state that pundits are somewhat sure will go to an indicated party; however, there is a small possibility that these states do not vote for their indicated party. A third phrase that will be used is: swing states. Swing states are states that are liable to swing towards either party. They often flip between parties each election and only a few votes decide their outcome. The last concept I want to cover is how Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes. Unlike all of the other states, Nebraska and Maine divide their electoral votes into districts rather than a winner take all system. Whoever wins the popular vote in a specific district wins only a few of that state's electoral votes.

Now we can begin to examine the electoral map. Let's first denote the true blue and red states for each party. For the Democrats: California, New York, Hawaii, Delaware, D.C, Illinois, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut are all "true blue states." For the Republicans: Texas, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Indiana, and Alabama are all "True Red States." Brining the tally to 143 votes for the Democrats and 107 for the Republicans (See image two.)

After the true blue and red states have been tallied, let's move over to each party's lean states. For the Democrats the states are: Washington, Oregon, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, Colorado, Nevada and Maine. Which brings the new democratic total to 218 electoral votes. Maine was classified as a lean state rather than a true blue state because of Maine's 2nd Congressional District. The district is held by a republican senator and is know to swing between parties. However, in this election it looks as though it will lean blue. The lean states for the Republicans are: Utah, South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, and Nebraska. Again, I wanted to focus on Nebraska due to the fact that it has a similar setup to Maine. However it seems as though all five congressional districts will vote republican. This brings the new Republican total up to 170 electoral votes. (See Image three)

Finally we arrive at the swing states. Each of the swings states' decisions is difficult to determine due to the fact that Vice President Joe Biden has not chosen a running mate. Furthermore we have to consider the fact that we are over a 100 days away from the election, in which time any number of events could sway the outcome towards either candidate. However, in my opinion, here is how each swing state will be decided: Due to suspected high latino turnout the first swing state, New Mexico, will go to Joe Biden; bringing the tally up 223-107. Although latino turnout is suspected to be high, it will not be enough to carry Florida and Arizona which I predict to move for President Trump, bringing the tally up to 223-210. Georgia and North Carolina might surprise some being in the "swing state" column; however, with high Black turnout suspected and the close gubernatorial race in Georgia, both states cannot be considered safe for either party. However, both Georgia and North Carolina, I predict, will vote Republican; bringing the total tally to 223-241. Finally we move into the rust belt. Joe Biden's Birthplace, Scranton Pennsylvania, will help him to carry Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan. However the final two remaining states, Ohio and Wisconsin, have been leaning Republican; so President Trump will win those states. This brings the final tally to 269-269 (see image one,) a dead tie.

What happens when there is an electoral college tie? The vote for president will shift to the House of Representatives and the vote for the Vice President will go to the Senate. However the methods the House and the Senate employs is not as straightforward as one may imagine. Instead of each individual member receiving one vote for the presidency, each state delegation receives one vote. For instance: California, which has 53 representatives, would only receive one vote as the "State of California." The way to win the House of Representatives election is not to command the majority of seats but rather win the majority of states. With the current map provided, President Trump would win the election by a margin of 22 states-28 states. However, the Senators and Congresspeople are not mandated to vote in concurrence with their constituencies, but rather their they are allowed to vote their conscience. In the Election of 1824, Andrew Jackson won the most electoral votes, however congress voted John Quincy Adams to the presidency. With precedent in mind, it may be helpful to consider which parties have control over state delegations. A new tally based on partisan congressional control would bring the count to to a razor thin margin of 24 states-26 states another win for President Trump. If the president were to lose a state delegation we would again, arrive at a tie. In the event of a tie, the Speaker of the House would be the deciding vote. Since Speaker Pelosi is a democrat, the vote would elect former Vice President Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. Although the Presidential election is extremely interesting, the Vice Presidential election may be just as intriguing. The Senate and the House do not have to vote for a President and a Vice President of the same party. This means that the White House could be divided between a Democratic President and Republican Vice President or vice versa. This would most likely cause a ripple effect where the president asks the Vice President to resign and a new Vice President would be nominated, dragging out the election process further than ever by forcing the senate to confirm another Vice President.

Almost all of these scenarios would cause uproar from the public. Whatever the outcome may be, many would call the election a sham and would accuse congress of refusing the will of the American People. Many called the Election of 1824 the "corrupt bargain" due to the fact that Andrew Jackson won more electoral votes yet John Quincy Adams became president. Furthermore, John Quincy Adams is one of eleven presidents to ever serve only one term. Although an electoral college tie may seem as though it would bring about the end of American Democracy, it could also be the drive for systematic change. It's possible that through the struggle and confusion of an electoral tie, the country would do away with the electoral college or create a voting system that is easier to use. Rather than cause the death of American Democracy, a tie may bring the birth of a stronger more inclusive republic.

Image 1(Final Tally)

Image 2 (True Blue and Red States)

Image Three (Lean States)

Citations:

Maine's 2nd Congressional District. (n.d.). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/ME/2

1824 United States presidential election. (2020, June 26). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1824_United_States_presidential_election

Contingent election. (2020, July 02). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

116th United States Congress. (2020, July 02). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/116th_United_States_Congress

The 1824 Election and the "Corrupt Bargain". (n.d.). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://www.ushistory.org/us/23d.asp

List of presidents of the United States by time in office. (2020, July 01). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_time_in_office

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. (n.d.). Retrieved July 03, 2020, from https://www.270towin.com/